BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
72-78 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
75-75 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 10-9 | 4.15 | 1.21 | 151.2 | 138 |
| Dylan Cease | 10-5 | 2.40 | 1.04 | 161.1 | 227 |
10-9
W-L
10-5
4.15
ERA
Ldr 2.40
1.21
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
151.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 161.1
138
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 227
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
32%
BLUE JAYS
68%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (TOR)
ORIOLES
44%
Book Odds: +127
BLUE JAYS
61%
Book Odds: -154
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
5.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Orioles
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Toronto: 1.3
vs
Baltimore: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+32.2% more
Toronto: 1.6
vs
Baltimore: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+24.3% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Baltimore: 7.9
Total Bases (L5)
+22.4% more
Toronto: 16.1
vs
Baltimore: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.5
1
TOR Score
5.5
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 7.9
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.9
6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 13.2
22.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.3
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -192
→
+127 / -154
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
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