PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
83-67 | Road
9
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
88-62 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 3-9 | 5.71 | 1.41 | 110.1 | 97 |
| Grant Holmes | 9-5 | 3.46 | 1.29 | 137.2 | 110 |
3-9
W-L
9-5
5.71
ERA
Ldr 3.46
1.41
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
110.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 137.2
97
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
45%
BRAVES
55%
PHILLIES
48%
Book Odds: +109
BRAVES
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
46%
Under 9.5
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Total Bases (L5)
+35.0% more
Atlanta: 15.5
vs
Philadelphia: 11.5
Hits (L5)
+32.2% more
Atlanta: 9.3
vs
Philadelphia: 7.0
Home Runs (L5)
+23.1% more
Atlanta: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
9
ATL Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 7.0
12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 7.6
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 11.5
15.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.0
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -127
→
+109 / -131
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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