LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
56-93 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
70-81 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grayson Rodriguez
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 4-7 | 6.28 | 1.57 | 81.2 | 75 |
| Jake Irvin | 2-9 | 5.52 | 1.42 | 91.1 | 90 |
4-7
W-L
2-9
6.28
ERA
Ldr 5.52
1.57
WHIP
Ldr 1.42
81.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 91.1
75
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 90
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
45%
NATIONALS
55%
ANGELS
47%
Book Odds: +114
NATIONALS
58%
Book Odds: -138
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
46%
Under 9.5
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
LAA @ WSH
3 - 4
Jun 29, 2025
WSH @ LAA
7 - 4
Jun 28, 2025
WSH @ LAA
2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.679
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+36.4% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.5% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+22.5% more
Washington: 4.1
vs
Los Angeles: 3.3
Hits (L5)
+14.6% more
Washington: 7.8
vs
Los Angeles: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.8
5
WSH Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.8
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.0
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 12.6
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.3
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +116 / -126
→
+114 / -138
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAA
WSH
LAA
ML
57%
92-69
59%
96-66
54%
87-74
55%
89-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-65
57%
91-70
51%
82-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-74-5
42%
65-90-6
52%
82-75-5
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