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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-94  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 12:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

70-79  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Gabriel Hughes
STARTING PITCHER

Gabriel Hughes

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jackson Jobe
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Jobe

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gabriel Hughes 0-7 5.81 1.38 57.1 48
Jackson Jobe 1-2 4.45 1.41 28.1 26
0-7 W-L 1-2
5.81 ERA Ldr 4.45
1.38 Ldr WHIP 1.41
57.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 28.1
48 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 26
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
40%
📊
TIGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (COL)
ROCKIES 39% Book Odds: +154
TIGERS 65% Book Odds: -187
Book Implied: 39.40% / 65.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

64.6%

Tigers Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 COL @ DET 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 COL @ DET 7 - 11
Sep 11, 2026 COL @ DET 2 - 6
May 8, 2025 DET @ COL 11 - 1
May 7, 2025 DET @ COL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +104.8% more
Detroit: 5.5 vs Colorado: 2.7
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
Detroit: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +18.8% more
Detroit: 18.0 vs Colorado: 15.2
Runs per Game (Season) +3.9% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 1
DET Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 9.5 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.8 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 15.2 17.0 / 9.0
Walks 5.5 / 2.7 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -194 → +154 / -187 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
11%TICKETS89%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 9 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
COL
DET
COL
ML
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
54% 87-73
55% 88-73
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-64
57% 91-69
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 69-81-9
60% 93-62-6
46% 69-81-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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