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UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Thu, Sep 10 • 11:05 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
UNAM
35%
DRAW
31%
LEÓN
35%
▲ Edge: +17.90% (León)
46% Book Odds: +119
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +288
32% Book Odds: +212
Book Implied: 45.70% / 25.80% / 32.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (León)
UNAMUNAM (-0.2) 0 LeónLeón (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

42.5% / 57.5%

Shots (On Goal)

14(5) / 13(3)

Corners

8 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around León 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

21.1%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

15.9%

León By 1 goal

21.1%

León By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
1
UNAM
Book Implied: 1.50
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Draw Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI León (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim León (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 UNAM vs León 3 - 1
Feb 22, 2026 UNAM vs León 2 - 0
Jan 18, 2026 UNAM vs León 1 - 1
Oct 25, 2025 León vs UNAM 1 - 1
Oct 18, 2025 León vs UNAM 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
León: 2.0 vs UNAM: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
León: 5.0 vs UNAM: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
León: 3.0 vs UNAM: 4.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
UNAM: 3.0 vs León: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 1.0 1
Pumas UNAM Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Pumas UNAM (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Pumas UNAM Share: 50.0% León Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Pumas UNAM
León
Pumas UNAM
León
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
22% 2-7
30% 3-7
ATS
47% 4-5
57% 4-3-3
12% 1-7
29% 2-5-3
TTL
68% 6-3
37% 3-6
65% 5-3
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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