Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Athletics SEA @ ATH

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

70-79  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

60-89  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gage Jump
STARTING PITCHER

Gage Jump

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Woo 11-9 4.03 1.06 156.1 158
Gage Jump 6-10 5.12 1.49 96.2 106
11-9 W-L 6-10
4.03 Ldr ERA 5.12
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.49
156.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 96.2
158 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 106
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
📊
ATHLETICS
45%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (ATH)
MARINERS 62% Book Odds: -161
ATHLETICS 40% Book Odds: +148
Book Implied: 61.70% / 40.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 46%
Under 9.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

36.3%

Athletics Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 5.50
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 5.50
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SEA @ ATH 7 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 SEA @ ATH 19 - 1
Sep 11, 2026 SEA @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 6, 2026 ATH @ SEA 0 - 2
Sep 5, 2026 ATH @ SEA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .719
182
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +39.4% more
Seattle: 3.5 vs Athletics: 2.1
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Seattle: 0.7 vs Athletics: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +14.6% more
Seattle: 8.2 vs Athletics: 7.0
Home Runs (L5) +88.0% more
Athletics: 1.6 vs Seattle: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.2 19
ATH Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.6 5.0 / 23.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.2 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 12.1 5.0 / 42.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -169 / +152 → -161 / +148 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
91%TICKETS9%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SEA
ATH
SEA
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-81
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 98-64
50% 81-80
59% 95-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 85-67-10
42% 66-90-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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