TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
73-76 | Road
6
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
79-70 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kumar Rocker
#80 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kumar Rocker | 5-11 | 4.61 | 1.44 | 134.2 | 127 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-2 | 3.53 | 1.15 | 117.1 | 77 |
5-11
W-L
7-2
4.61
ERA
Ldr 3.53
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
134.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
117.1
127 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
77
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
39%
DIAMONDBACKS
61%
▲ Edge: +3.50% (ARI)
RANGERS
47%
Book Odds: +113
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Texas
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Win
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
TEX @ ARI
7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
TEX @ ARI
6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
TEX @ ARI
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
ARI @ TEX
5 - 6
May 12, 2026
ARI @ TEX
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+45.0% more
Arizona: 9.4
vs
Texas: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+44.3% more
Arizona: 15.6
vs
Texas: 10.8
Walks (L5)
+17.5% more
Arizona: 4.0
vs
Texas: 3.4
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Arizona: 0.5
vs
Texas: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.5
6
ARI Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.5
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.9
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 10.8
8.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -107
→
+113 / -136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TEX
ARI
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
56%
89-71
61%
98-63
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
78-70-14
49%
73-77-9
55%
81-66-14
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