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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

76-72  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

73-76  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sean Newcomb
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Newcomb

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Newcomb 2-4 2.71 1.13 83.0 74
Kyle Leahy 10-4 3.41 1.33 132.0 124
2-4 W-L 10-4
2.71 Ldr ERA 3.41
1.13 Ldr WHIP 1.33
83.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 132.0
74 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 124
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
42%
📊
CARDINALS
58%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (STL)
WHITE SOX 53% Book Odds: -111
CARDINALS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.60% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (St. Louis)
White SoxCHW (-1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

36.3%

Cardinals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CHW @ STL 1 - 3
Sep 12, 2026 CHW @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 CHW @ STL 3 - 7
Jun 19, 2025 STL @ CHW 8 - 6
Jun 17, 2025 STL @ CHW 12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.826 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +49.2% more
St. Louis: 10.2 vs Chicago: 6.8
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
St. Louis: 0.3 vs Chicago: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +19.2% more
St. Louis: 14.4 vs Chicago: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.8 6
STL Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.2 / 6.8 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 8.7 13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 12.1 13.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.3 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -111 / -108 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
27%TICKETS73%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
94%TICKETS6%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHW
STL
CHW
ML
53% 85-74
49% 81-86
52% 84-77
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 99-68
53% 85-76
56% 93-74
TTL
46% 68-81-10
58% 96-69-2
50% 76-75-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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