PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
82-67 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
88-61 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | 3-3 | 3.23 | 1.06 | 61.1 | 59 |
| Tyler Mahle | 5-10 | 4.05 | 1.27 | 131.0 | 124 |
3-3
W-L
5-10
3.23 Ldr
ERA
4.05
1.06 Ldr
WHIP
1.27
61.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 131.0
59
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 124
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
53%
BRAVES
47%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (PHI)
PHILLIES
46%
Book Odds: +120
BRAVES
59%
Book Odds: -145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Walks (L5)
+48.3% more
Atlanta: 3.0
vs
Philadelphia: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
2
ATL Score
3.8
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.0
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.5
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 10.7
22.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.0
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +152 / -185
→
+120 / -145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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