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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

75-74  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

89-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peter Lambert 8-8 3.67 1.23 139.2 137
Ian Seymour 9-6 4.33 1.16 116.1 140
8-8 W-L 9-6
3.67 Ldr ERA 4.33
1.23 WHIP Ldr 1.16
139.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 116.1
137 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 140
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
38%
📊
RAYS
62%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (TB)
ASTROS 45% Book Odds: +123
RAYS 60% Book Odds: -149
Book Implied: 44.80% / 59.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 64%
Under 7.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Houston Astros (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

63.7%

Rays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Rays Win
62% Win Prob
A
Sim Astros Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 HOU @ TB 4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026 HOU @ TB 2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026 HOU @ TB 1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026 TB @ HOU 0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 TB @ HOU 8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .728
4
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4125.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +70.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7 vs Houston: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +51.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +14.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.8 2
TB Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.1 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 8.5 14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 14.0 8.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.5 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +143 / -174 → +123 / -149 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
34%TICKETS66%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
HOU
TB
HOU
ML
58% 95-68
50% 81-82
58% 95-68
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 91-72
55% 90-73
55% 90-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
45% 70-84-9
51% 78-75-10
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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