CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
75-74 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
70-78 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Espino
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | 0-0 | 2.70 | 1.30 | 10.0 | 18 |
| Connor Prielipp | 4-7 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 108.0 | 116 |
0-0
W-L
4-7
2.70 Ldr
ERA
5.25
1.30 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
10.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 108.0
18
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 116
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
TWINS
49%
GUARDIANS
52%
Book Odds: -108
TWINS
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.80
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+43.1% more
Cleveland: 4.3
vs
Minnesota: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+29.2% more
Cleveland: 14.1
vs
Minnesota: 10.0
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+27.7% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
Minnesota: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
3
MIN Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 8.4
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.7
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 14.1
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +101
→
-108 / -111
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CLE
MIN
CLE
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-68
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
55%
88-71-2
53%
80-72-9
43%
69-90-2
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