Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Red Sox KC @ BOS

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

66-83  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

81-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Randy Dobnak 3-3 2.54 1.32 63.2 43
Ranger Suarez 6-4 3.44 1.22 130.2 122
3-3 W-L 6-4
2.54 Ldr ERA 3.44
1.32 WHIP Ldr 1.22
63.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.2
43 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 122
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
42%
📊
RED SOX
58%
▲ Edge: +7% (KC)
ROYALS 35% Book Odds: +183
RED SOX 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.30% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 48%
Under 8.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

64.6%

Red Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.50
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.718 ▲
OPS
.409
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +29.4% more
Boston: 9.4 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +98.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +76.5% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.5 1
BOS Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.2 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.2 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 13.4 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205 → +183 / -225 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
17%TICKETS83%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
89%TICKETS11%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
KC
BOS
KC
ML
50% 80-80
55% 89-72
47% 76-87
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 91-70
48% 79-84
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 90-64-7
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 1 day, 23 hours ago
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Boston Red Sox Owe Roman Anthony $123 Million Despite Another Po…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago
Yankees vs. Rays ALDS: Expert Predictions Split as Judge's Statu…
yahoo 6 days, 11 hours ago
MLB Investigates Discoloration on Sonny Gray's Neck During Red S…
nypost 6 days, 23 hours ago