LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
56-92 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
69-81 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walbert Urena
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Urena | 9-10 | 2.74 | 1.21 | 131.1 | 124 |
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-6 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 95.0 | 91 |
9-10
W-L
2-6
2.74 Ldr
ERA
3.60
1.21 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
131.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
95.0
124 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
91
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
50%
NATIONALS
50%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (LAA)
ANGELS
48%
Book Odds: +110
NATIONALS
57%
Book Odds: -132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
LAA @ WSH
5 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
LAA @ WSH
3 - 4
Jun 29, 2025
WSH @ LAA
7 - 4
Jun 28, 2025
WSH @ LAA
2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.679
OPS
▲
.744
154
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+36.4% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.5% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.8% more
Washington: 9.9
vs
Los Angeles: 9.0
OPS (Season)
+6.5%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.8
5
WSH Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.2
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.0
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 13.9
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.0
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
+110 / -132
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAA
WSH
LAA
ML
57%
92-69
59%
96-66
54%
87-74
55%
89-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-65
57%
91-70
51%
82-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-74-5
42%
65-90-6
52%
82-75-5
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