PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
74-75 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
83-66 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 10-11 | 3.83 | 1.15 | 155.0 | 181 |
| Clay Holmes | 6-7 | 2.83 | 1.12 | 86.0 | 65 |
10-11
W-L
6-7
3.83
ERA
Ldr 2.83
1.15
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
155.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
86.0
181 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
65
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
37%
CUBS
63%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (CHC)
PIRATES
48%
Book Odds: +109
CUBS
57%
Book Odds: -132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5
47%
Under 9.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
63% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+26.1% more
Chicago: 3.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.8% more
Chicago: 15.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.6% more
Chicago: 6.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.9
Hits (L5)
+17.5% more
Chicago: 9.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
3
CHC Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.3
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 5.9
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 12.9
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.4
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +103 / -120
→
+109 / -132
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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