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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-93  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

69-79  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Sears

#64 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Gordon 1-4 5.40 1.43 93.1 76
Andrew Sears 0-1 4.38 1.22 12.1 8
1-4 W-L 0-1
5.40 ERA Ldr 4.38
1.43 WHIP Ldr 1.22
93.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 12.1
76 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 8
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
39%
📊
TIGERS
61%
ROCKIES 42% Book Odds: +138
TIGERS 63% Book Odds: -167
Book Implied: 42% / 62.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

64.6%

Tigers Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 COL @ DET 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 COL @ DET 7 - 11
Sep 11, 2026 COL @ DET 2 - 6
May 8, 2025 DET @ COL 11 - 1
May 7, 2025 DET @ COL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Detroit: 1.4 vs Colorado: 0.8
Walks (L5) +57.4% more
Detroit: 4.8 vs Colorado: 3.0
Hits (L5) +23.5% more
Colorado: 8.3 vs Detroit: 6.3
Runs per Game (Season) +3.9% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 7
DET Score 5.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 8.3 18.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 7.2 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 12.2 29.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.8 / 3.0 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -170 → +138 / -167
12%TICKETS88%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 8.5 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
COL
DET
COL
ML
54% 86-73
60% 97-64
54% 87-73
55% 88-73
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-64
57% 91-69
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 69-81-9
60% 93-62-6
46% 69-81-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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