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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

2-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
@
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
Player
Riley Patterson None-None
Corliss Waitman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
19%
📊
49ERS
81%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (MIA)
DOLPHINS 15% Book Odds: +575
49ERS 89% Book Odds: -847
Book Implied: 14.80% / 89.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 45.5 50%
Under 45.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (+12.5) 0 49ersSF (-12.5)
Miami Dolphins (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

69.1%

49ers Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.6%

SF By 1-6 points

16.5%

SF By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 16.50
25.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
18
MIAMI
Book Implied: 16.50
29
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim 49ers Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Sim Dolphins (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIA @ SF 13 - 35
Dec 22, 2024 SF @ MIA 17 - 29
Dec 4, 2022 MIA @ SF 17 - 33
Oct 11, 2020 MIA @ SF 43 - 17
Nov 27, 2016 SF @ MIA 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +42.1% more
San Francisco: 21.5 vs Miami: 15.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.7% more
San Francisco: 142.5 vs Miami: 105.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +27.0% more
San Francisco: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.3% more
San Francisco: 343.3 vs Miami: 278.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 18.5 13
SF Score 25.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 15.1 23.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 200.8 / 173.5 287.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards 142.5 / 105.0 95.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.71 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 343.3 / 278.5 382.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.2 7.8 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +490 / -676 → +575 / -847 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 45.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SF Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SF
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.4
SF
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIA
SF
MIA
ML
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
ATS
14% 1-6
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
50% 3-3-1
TTL
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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