Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Chargers LV @ LAC

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-0  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
25%
📊
CHARGERS
75%
RAIDERS 28% Book Odds: +260
CHARGERS 77% Book Odds: -325
Book Implied: 27.80% / 76.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 43.5 49%
Under 43.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Los Angeles)
RaidersLV (+6.5) 0 ChargersLAC (-6.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

22.4%

Chargers Cover

77.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LV By 1-6 points

10.3%

LV By 7-13 points

6.8%

LAC By 1-6 points

14.9%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 18.50
26.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
17
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 18.50
26
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chargers Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Chargers Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.6
B
Sim Chargers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 LV @ LAC 26 - 14
Nov 30, 2025 LV @ LAC 14 - 31
Sep 15, 2025 LAC @ LV 20 - 9
Jan 5, 2025 LAC @ LV 34 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 LV @ LAC 10 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Los Angeles: 128.8 vs Las Vegas: 88.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +43.5% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs Las Vegas: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +39.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Las Vegas: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +34.4% more
Los Angeles: 307.6 vs Las Vegas: 228.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 16.2 26
LAC Score 26.8 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 16.6 17.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 178.8 / 140.0 183.0 / 248.0
Rushing Yards 128.8 / 88.9 127.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 307.6 / 228.9 310.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 3.8 5.0 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +285 / -360 → +260 / -325 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 43.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +3.4
LAC
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -8.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +3.4
LAC
0-4-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -8.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
LAC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
LV
LAC
LV
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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