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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

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20
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
41%
📊
BRONCOS
59%
JAGUARS 45% Book Odds: +124
BRONCOS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.6
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.9 (Under)
Over 45.5 43%
Under 45.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Denver)
JaguarsJAX (+2.5) 0 BroncosDEN (-2.5)
Denver Broncos (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

38.8%

Broncos Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

JAX By 1-6 points

14.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

12.1%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 21.50
23.8
DENVER
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
21
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 21.50
24
DENVER
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Broncos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Broncos (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.6
C
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 JAX @ DEN 13 - 20
Dec 21, 2025 JAX @ DEN 34 - 20
Oct 30, 2022 DEN @ JAX 21 - 17
Sep 19, 2021 DEN @ JAX 23 - 13
Sep 29, 2019 JAX @ DEN 26 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
Denver: 1.2 vs Jacksonville: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Jacksonville: 109.8 vs Denver: 89.3
First Downs (L5) +16.9% more
Jacksonville: 20.3 vs Denver: 16.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.4% more
Jacksonville: 5.6 vs Denver: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 19.8 13
DEN Score 23.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 20.3 22.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 222.0 / 226.7 288.0 / 173.0
Rushing Yards 89.3 / 109.8 104.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 311.3 / 336.5 392.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.6 6.6 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +124 / -148 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 45.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +8.3
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +8.3
DEN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
JAX
DEN
JAX
ML
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
ATS
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
TTL
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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