Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Broncos JAX @ DEN

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

1-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
41%
📊
BRONCOS
59%
JAGUARS 45% Book Odds: +124
BRONCOS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.6
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.9 (Under)
Over 45.5 43%
Under 45.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Denver)
JaguarsJAX (+2.5) 0 BroncosDEN (-2.5)
Denver Broncos (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

38.8%

Broncos Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

JAX By 1-6 points

14.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

12.1%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 21.50
23.8
DENVER
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
21
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 21.50
24
DENVER
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Broncos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Broncos (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.6
C
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 JAX @ DEN 13 - 20
Dec 21, 2025 JAX @ DEN 34 - 20
Oct 30, 2022 DEN @ JAX 21 - 17
Sep 19, 2021 DEN @ JAX 23 - 13
Sep 29, 2019 JAX @ DEN 26 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
Denver: 1.2 vs Jacksonville: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Jacksonville: 109.8 vs Denver: 89.3
First Downs (L5) +16.9% more
Jacksonville: 20.3 vs Denver: 16.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.4% more
Jacksonville: 5.6 vs Denver: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 19.8 13
DEN Score 23.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 20.3 22.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 222.0 / 226.7 288.0 / 173.0
Rushing Yards 89.3 / 109.8 104.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 311.3 / 336.5 392.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.6 6.6 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +124 / -148 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 45.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +7.8
DEN
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +7.8
DEN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.8
DEN
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
JAX
DEN
JAX
ML
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
ATS
83% 5-1
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rips Bo Nix's Performance: 'That Right There Is…
nbcsports 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rips Bo Nix's 'Disrespectful' Play After Bronco…
awfulannouncing 5 hours, 51 minutes ago
Sam Darnold's Two Interceptions Prove Costly in Seahawks' Overti…
usatoday 5 hours, 58 minutes ago
Seahawks' 3-3 Start Raises Question: How Do Super Bowl Champs Fa…
yahoo 5 hours, 59 minutes ago
Broncos Edge Seahawks in Overtime Thriller Behind Ground Game an…
espn 6 hours, 3 minutes ago