Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Texans CIN @ HOU

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Reliant Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-2  |  Home

6
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Tremon Smith
KEY GAME

Tremon Smith

#11 | Cornerback
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Tremon Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
41%
📊
TEXANS
59%
BENGALS 45% Book Odds: +124
TEXANS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.4
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 45.5 53%
Under 45.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
BengalsCIN (+3) 0 TexansHOU (-3)
Houston Texans (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

23.8%

Texans Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

CIN By 1-6 points

10.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

7.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

15.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 21.20
28.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 24.20
Simulated Score
22
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 21.20
25
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 24.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Bengals (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.4
C
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CIN @ HOU 20 - 6
Nov 12, 2023 HOU @ CIN 30 - 27
Dec 27, 2020 CIN @ HOU 37 - 31
Sep 14, 2017 HOU @ CIN 13 - 9
Dec 24, 2016 CIN @ HOU 10 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.5% more
Houston: 1.7 vs Cincinnati: 1.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.6% more
Cincinnati: 5.6 vs Houston: 4.7
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Cincinnati: 23.6 vs Houston: 20.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Cincinnati: 125.5 vs Houston: 109.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 18.2 20
HOU Score 28.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 23.6 22.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 207.4 / 233.2 314.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards 109.4 / 125.5 60.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 316.8 / 358.7 374.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.6 4.8 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +124 / -148 ↑
30%TICKETS70%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 45.5 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +9.5
HOU
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +9.5
HOU
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.0
HOU
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CIN
HOU
CIN
ML
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
TTL
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Week 3 Fantasy Football: Bench Gems Including Sam Darnold and Or…
yahoo 7 hours, 12 minutes ago
Week 3 Fantasy Football Decisions: Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft, Ka…
yahoo 7 hours, 14 minutes ago
Mike Macdonald Apologizes to Sean Payton Over Leaked Spygate Tal…
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Former Bengals Long Snapper Cal Adomitis Joins Saints Ahead of W…
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
NFL Week 2 Power Rankings Shakeup: Bills, Seahawks, 49ers, Benga…
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago