Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Jets GB @ NYJ

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
70%
📊
JETS
30%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (GB)
PACKERS 65% Book Odds: -185
JETS 39% Book Odds: +154
Book Implied: 64.90% / 39.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.5
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
Over 44.5 50%
Under 44.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

77.3%

Jets Cover

22.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

15.0%

GB By 7-13 points

19.7%

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.4%

NYJ By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 24
17
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
24
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 24
18
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Packers Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
A
Sim Packers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.5
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 GB @ NYJ 20 - 17
Oct 16, 2022 NYJ @ GB 27 - 10
Dec 23, 2018 GB @ NYJ 44 - 38
Sep 14, 2014 NYJ @ GB 24 - 31
Oct 31, 2010 GB @ NYJ 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +40.0% more
Green Bay: 255.9 vs New York: 153.6
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Green Bay: 360.3 vs New York: 269.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.3% more
Green Bay: 5.8 vs New York: 4.5
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Green Bay: 19.9 vs New York: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 27.5 20
NYJ Score 17.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 19.9 21.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 153.6 / 255.9 218.0 / 136.0
Rushing Yards 115.6 / 104.4 67.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 269.2 / 360.3 285.0 / 199.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -250 / +205 → -185 / +154 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 44.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.9
NYJ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.9
NYJ Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.5
NYJ
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
GB
NYJ
GB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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