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CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

0-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
@
Nick Folk
KEY GAME

Nick Folk

#6 | Place kicker
Player
Sam Martin None-None
Nick Folk None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
47%
📊
FALCONS
53%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (ATL)
PANTHERS 59% Book Odds: -143
FALCONS 44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 58.80% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 43.5 42%
Under 43.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Atlanta)
PanthersCAR (-2.5) 0 FalconsATL (+2.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

48.3%

Falcons Cover

51.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.3%

CAR By 7-13 points

14.9%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.6%

ATL By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23
20.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
21
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23
23
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
C
Sim Falcons (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CAR @ ATL 34 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CAR @ ATL 30 - 27
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ CAR 0 - 30
Jan 5, 2025 CAR @ ATL 44 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 ATL @ CAR 38 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.5% more
Atlanta: 2.0 vs Carolina: 1.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Carolina: 242.1 vs Atlanta: 202.1
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Carolina: 359.2 vs Atlanta: 305.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.0% more
Carolina: 5.8 vs Atlanta: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 20.2 34
ATL Score 20.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 19.0 17.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 202.1 / 242.1 129.0 / 272.0
Rushing Yards 103.5 / 117.1 157.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 305.6 / 359.2 286.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.6 5.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.8 4.3 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -143 / +129 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +4.8
ATL
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -19.0 ATS +/-: -14.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +4.8
ATL
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -19.0 ATS +/-: -14.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +21.5
ATL
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CAR
ATL
CAR
ML
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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