Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Bills DET @ BUF

DETROIT

LIONSDET

1-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:15 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

2-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Tommy Doman Jr.
KEY GAME

Tommy Doman Jr.

#39 | Punter
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Tommy Doman Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
40%
📊
BILLS
60%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (DET)
LIONS 34% Book Odds: +195
BILLS 70% Book Odds: -238
Book Implied: 33.90% / 70.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 31%
Under 54.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (+5.5) 0 BillsBUF (-5.5)
Detroit Lions (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

61.2%

Bills Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

14.7%

DET By 7-13 points

12.1%

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22
DETROIT
Book Implied: 24.50
26
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
28
DETROIT
Book Implied: 24.50
25
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Bills Win
60% Win Prob
A
Sim Lions Loss
62% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Sim Lions (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 DET @ BUF 31 - 41
Dec 15, 2024 BUF @ DET 48 - 42
Nov 24, 2022 BUF @ DET 28 - 25
Dec 16, 2018 DET @ BUF 13 - 14
Oct 5, 2014 BUF @ DET 17 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.3% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Detroit: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +43.3% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Buffalo: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Detroit: 146.7 vs Buffalo: 125.1
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Detroit: 23.3 vs Buffalo: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 22.0 31
BUF Score 26.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 23.3 34.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 236.2 / 232.4 243.0 / 289.0
Rushing Yards 125.1 / 146.7 203.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.75 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 361.3 / 379.2 446.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.7 6.5 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +195 / -238 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -5.3
BUF Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -5.3
BUF Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +14.5
BUF
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DET
BUF
DET
ML
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
TTL
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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