Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ San José St FRES @ SJSU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

2-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 11:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

2-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
56%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
44%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (SJSU)
FRESNO ST 66% Book Odds: -198
SAN JOSÉ ST 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.40% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 47.5 61%
Under 47.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San José State)
Fresno StFRES (-4.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+4.5)
San José State Spartans (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

42.9%

San José St Cover

57.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

FRES By 1-6 points

16.9%

FRES By 7-13 points

17.2%

SJSU By 1-6 points

15.5%

SJSU By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 26
25
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 21.50
Simulated Score
30
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 26
25
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 21.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fresno St Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Fresno St Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San José St (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.5
C
Sim Fresno St (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
B
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FRES @ SJSU 26 - 10
Nov 29, 2025 FRES @ SJSU 41 - 14
Oct 26, 2024 SJSU @ FRES 10 - 33
Nov 11, 2023 FRES @ SJSU 18 - 42
Oct 15, 2022 SJSU @ FRES 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +132.0% more
San José State: 2.3 vs Fresno State: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
San José State: 21.2 vs Fresno State: 18.2
Total Yards (L5) +10.6% more
San José State: 407.3 vs Fresno State: 368.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 27.5 26
SJSU Score 25.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 18.2 13.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 170.1 / 157.9 91.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 407.3 / 368.4 335.0 / 354.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -280 / +224 → -198 / +164 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 47.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
SJSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
SJSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
SJSU
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
FRES
SJSU
FRES
ML
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
100% 6-0
ATS
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
TTL
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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