Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Purdue @ UCLA PUR @ UCLA

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

1-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 11:00 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

3-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
@
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
Player
Dylan Drennan None-None
Curtis Gerrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
26%
📊
UCLA
74%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (PUR)
PURDUE 19% Book Odds: +440
UCLA 86% Book Odds: -600
Book Implied: 18.50% / 85.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 52.5 51%
Under 52.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
+14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Purdue)
PurduePUR (+14) 0 UCLAUCLA (-14)
Purdue Boilermakers (+14) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

78.4%

UCLA Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PUR +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PUR By 1-6 points

10.0%

PUR By 7-13 points

6.6%

UCLA By 1-6 points

14.7%

UCLA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 19.20
31.8
UCLA
Book Implied: 33.20
Simulated Score
16
PURDUE
Book Implied: 19.20
28
UCLA
Book Implied: 33.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim UCLA Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purdue (+14) Push
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Sim Purdue (+14) Push
Proj Spread: +12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.6
D
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 PUR @ UCLA 38 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
UCLA: 179.8 vs Purdue: 124.0
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
UCLA: 1.0 vs Purdue: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +22.4% more
Purdue: 22.8 vs UCLA: 17.7
Total Yards (L5) +11.1% more
Purdue: 392.4 vs UCLA: 349.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 20.8 38
UCLA Score 31.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 22.8 35.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 179.8 / 124.0 369.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.79 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 349.0 / 392.4 645.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +532 / -836 → +440 / -600 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +14 / -14 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 52.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +4.2
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +4.2
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.5
UCLA
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
PUR
UCLA
PUR
ML
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
83% 5-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4-1
0% 0-4-1
60% 3-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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