Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Arizona NIU @ ARIZ

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:30 PM ET
Casino Del Sol Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

2-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Chase Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
6%
📊
ARIZONA
94%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (NIU)
N ILLINOIS 5% Book Odds: +2000
ARIZONA 99% Book Odds: -6500
Book Implied: 4.80% / 98.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 70%
Under 50.5 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
+34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Northern Illinois)
N IllinoisNIU (+34.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (-34.5)
Northern Illinois Huskies (+34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

98.2%

Arizona Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU +29.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

NIU By 1-6 points

1.1%

NIU By 7-13 points

0.4%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

3.1%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 8
44
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 42.50
Simulated Score
18
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 8
26
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 42.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Arizona Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +29.5
B
Sim N Illinois (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.5
A
Sim u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 NIU @ ARIZ 17 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +50.8% more
Arizona: 404.5 vs Northern Illinois: 268.3
First Downs (L5) +42.4% more
Arizona: 22.7 vs Northern Illinois: 16.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Northern Illinois: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 14.5 17
ARIZ Score 44.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 16.0 22.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 144.6 / 143.3 84.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.82 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 404.5 / 268.3 441.0 / 341.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3000 / -10000 → +2000 / -6500 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35 / -35 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50 → 50.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-8-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -6.8
ARIZ Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -21.4 ATS +/-: -6.8
ARIZ Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.5
ARIZ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
NIU
ARIZ
NIU
ML
100% 8-0
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
TTL
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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