Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ San Diego St JMU @ SDSU

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

3-0  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
47%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
53%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (JMU)
JAMES MADISON 46% Book Odds: +120
SAN DIEGO ST 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 58%
Under 46.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (+2.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (-2.5)
James Madison Dukes (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

54.3%

San Diego St Cover

45.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

15.9%

JMU By 7-13 points

14.2%

SDSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

SDSU By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 22
26
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
27
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 22
28
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San Diego St Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim San Diego St Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI James Madison (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.5
D
Sim James Madison (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
B
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 JMU @ SDSU 26 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +110.0% more
San Diego State: 1.8 vs James Madison: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +31.2% more
James Madison: 470.7 vs San Diego State: 323.6
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
James Madison: 22.0 vs San Diego State: 18.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
James Madison: 0.5 vs San Diego State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 24.5 26
SDSU Score 26.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 22.0 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 206.7 / 242.5 192.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 323.6 / 470.7 401.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -119 → +120 / -142 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 46.5
90%TICKETS10%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.8 ATS +/-: +13.8
SDSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 26.8 ATS +/-: +13.8
SDSU
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +6.0
SDSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
JMU
SDSU
JMU
ML
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
TTL
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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