Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Dakota @ Boise St SDAK @ BOIS

SOUTH DAKOTA

SOUTH DAKOTASDAK

3-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

2-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Brook Honore Jr.
KEY GAME

Brook Honore Jr.

#16 | Punter
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Brook Honore Jr. None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH DAKOTA
6%
📊
BOISE ST
94%
SOUTH DAKOTA 7% Book Odds: +1400
BOISE ST 97% Book Odds: -3200
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 61.5 47%
Under 61.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.5
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
-27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boise State)
South DakotaSDAK (+27.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (-27.5)
Boise State Broncos (-27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Dakota Cover

1.8%

Boise St Cover

98.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -29.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

SDAK By 1-6 points

1.1%

SDAK By 7-13 points

0.4%

BOIS By 1-6 points

3.1%

BOIS By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.5
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Implied: 17
44
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 44.50
Simulated Score
15
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Implied: 17
37
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 44.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Boise St Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Boise St Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boise St (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.5
D
Sim South Dakota (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +22.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.5
C
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 SDAK @ BOIS 24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +99.4% more
Boise State: 202.5 vs South Dakota: 101.6
Total Yards (L5) +77.8% more
Boise State: 430.0 vs South Dakota: 241.8
First Downs (L5) +68.3% more
Boise State: 22.7 vs South Dakota: 13.5
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Boise State: 0.6 vs South Dakota: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score 14.5 24
BOIS Score 44.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 13.5 29.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 202.5 / 101.6 325.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 430.0 / 241.8 533.0 / 279.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1400 / -3200 → +1400 / -3200
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 61.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
--
BOIS Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
--
BOIS Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
--
BOIS
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
SDAK
BOIS
SDAK
ML
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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