Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Texas A&M @ Tulsa ETAM @ TLSA

EAST TEXAS A&M

EAST TEXAS A&METAM

1-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:00 PM ET
H. A. Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

3-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ben Mehan
KEY GAME

Ben Mehan

#39 | Punter
@
Evan Guenthner
KEY GAME

Evan Guenthner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Ben Mehan None-None
Evan Guenthner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST TEXAS A&M
8%
📊
TULSA
92%
EAST TEXAS A&M --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 55.5 51%
Under 55.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.0
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
+41.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.5 points (East Texas A&M)
East Texas A&METAM (+41.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (-41.5)
East Texas A&M Lions (+41.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Texas A&M Cover

96.3%

Tulsa Cover

3.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ETAM +25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETAM)

ETAM By 1-6 points

2.2%

ETAM By 7-13 points

0.9%

TLSA By 1-6 points

5.3%

TLSA By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 7
40.8
TULSA
Book Implied: 48.50
Simulated Score
15
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 7
35
TULSA
Book Implied: 48.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tulsa Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Tulsa Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Texas A&M (+41.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +25.0
A
Sim East Texas A&M (+41.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.6
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 ETAM @ TLSA 0 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +90.7% more
Tulsa: 201.1 vs East Texas A&M: 105.4
Total Yards (L5) +58.1% more
Tulsa: 386.4 vs East Texas A&M: 244.4
First Downs (L5) +38.7% more
Tulsa: 19.3 vs East Texas A&M: 13.9
Turnovers (L5) +52.7% more
East Texas A&M: 2.1 vs Tulsa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score 15.8 0
TLSA Score 40.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 13.9 23.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 201.1 / 105.4 286.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 386.4 / 244.4 450.0 / 288.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +42.5 / -42.5 → +41.5 / -41.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 55.5 ↓
92%TICKETS8%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
--
TLSA Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.7 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
--
TLSA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.7 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
--
TLSA
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -16.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
ETAM
TLSA
ETAM
ML
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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