Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ Texas UTSA @ TEX

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

2-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

3-0  |  Home

30
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Mac Chiumento None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
5%
📊
TEXAS
95%
UTSA 5% Book Odds: +1800
TEXAS 98% Book Odds: -5000
Book Implied: 5.30% / 98%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 58.5 53%
Under 58.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
-30.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Texas)
UTSAUTSA (+30.5) 0 TexasTEX (-30.5)
Texas Longhorns (-30.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

1.4%

Texas Cover

98.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEX -30.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

UTSA By 1-6 points

0.9%

UTSA By 7-13 points

0.3%

TEX By 1-6 points

2.7%

TEX By 7-13 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
UTSA
Book Implied: 14
44.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 44.50
Simulated Score
33
UTSA
Book Implied: 14
31
TEXAS
Book Implied: 44.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim UTSA Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas (-30.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.6
D
Sim UTSA (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Sim o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UTSA @ TEX 6 - 30
Sep 14, 2024 UTSA @ TEX 7 - 56
Sep 17, 2022 UTSA @ TEX 20 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +81.0% more
Texas: 1.1 vs UTSA: 0.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs UTSA: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.6% more
UTSA: 176.3 vs Texas: 140.0
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
UTSA: 447.7 vs Texas: 409.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 14.2 6
TEX Score 44.8 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 23.0 27.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 140.0 / 176.3 228.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.41 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 409.3 / 447.7 400.0 / 142.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +1800 / -5000
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30 / -30 → +30.5 / -30.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58 → 58.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
TEX
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
TEX
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.7
TEX
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
UTSA
TEX
UTSA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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