Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ Tennessee KENN @ TENN

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-2  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:45 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

3-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Matt McKenzie None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
8%
📊
TENNESSEE
92%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (KENN)
KENNESAW ST 4% Book Odds: +2200
TENNESSEE 99% Book Odds: -8000
Book Implied: 4.30% / 98.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.5
Projected
Book Total
60.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 60.0 59%
Under 60.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
+35.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (+35.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (-35.5)
Kennesaw State Owls (+35.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

96.6%

Tennessee Cover

3.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN +25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

2.1%

KENN By 7-13 points

0.8%

TENN By 1-6 points

5.0%

TENN By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 12.20
45
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 47.80
Simulated Score
24
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 12.20
38
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 47.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Tennessee Win
92% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +25.5
B
Sim Kennesaw St (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 64.5
C
Sim o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 KENN @ TENN 9 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.9% more
Tennessee: 250.6 vs Kennesaw State: 157.7
Total Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Tennessee: 494.5 vs Kennesaw State: 402.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Kennesaw State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Tennessee: 25.5 vs Kennesaw State: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 19.5 9
TENN Score 45.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 22.0 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 250.6 / 157.7 268.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 494.5 / 402.7 446.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -8000 → +2200 / -8000
2%TICKETS98%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +35.5 / -35.5
53%TICKETS47%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60 → 60
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.0
TENN Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.0
TENN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -6.8
TENN
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
KENN
TENN
KENN
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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