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KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-2  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:45 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

3-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Matt McKenzie None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
8%
📊
TENNESSEE
92%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (KENN)
KENNESAW ST 4% Book Odds: +2200
TENNESSEE 99% Book Odds: -8000
Book Implied: 4.30% / 98.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.5
Projected
Book Total
60.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 60.0 59%
Under 60.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
+35.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (+35.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (-35.5)
Kennesaw State Owls (+35.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

96.6%

Tennessee Cover

3.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN +25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

2.1%

KENN By 7-13 points

0.8%

TENN By 1-6 points

5.0%

TENN By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 12.20
45
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 47.80
Simulated Score
24
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 12.20
38
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 47.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Tennessee Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +25.5
A
Sim Kennesaw St (+35.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 64.5
B
Sim o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 KENN @ TENN 9 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.9% more
Tennessee: 250.6 vs Kennesaw State: 157.7
Total Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Tennessee: 494.5 vs Kennesaw State: 402.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Kennesaw State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Tennessee: 25.5 vs Kennesaw State: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 19.5 9
TENN Score 45.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 22.0 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 250.6 / 157.7 268.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 494.5 / 402.7 446.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -8000 → +2200 / -8000
2%TICKETS98%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +35.5 / -35.5
53%TICKETS47%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60 → 60
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
TENN Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
TENN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
TENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
KENN
TENN
KENN
ML
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
TTL
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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