Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ Maryland VT @ MD

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

3-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

2-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
Player
John Love None-None
Bryce McFerson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
19%
📊
MARYLAND
81%
▲ Edge: +33.70% (MD)
VIRGINIA TECH 57% Book Odds: -130
MARYLAND 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 56.50% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
Over 53.5 49%
Under 53.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
MARYLAND
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Maryland)
Virginia TechVT (-2.5) 0 MarylandMD (+2.5)
Maryland Terrapins (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

13.4%

Maryland Cover

86.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

VT By 1-6 points

6.9%

VT By 7-13 points

3.9%

MD By 1-6 points

11.8%

MD By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 28
34.5
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
22
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 28
34
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Maryland Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.5
A
Sim Maryland (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 VT @ MD 35 - 26
Dec 29, 2021 MD @ VT 54 - 10
Nov 16, 2013 MD @ VT 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Maryland: 480.6 vs Virginia Tech: 413.6
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Maryland: 25.0 vs Virginia Tech: 22.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Maryland: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +67.4% more
Virginia Tech: 1.7 vs Maryland: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 19.0 35
MD Score 34.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 22.1 23.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 165.1 / 169.4 64.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 480.6 / 413.6 423.0 / 445.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -167 / +141 → -130 / +110 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MD
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: -5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MD
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: -5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.7
MD
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
VT
MD
VT
ML
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
ATS
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
TTL
67% 4-2
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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