Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ Virginia WVU @ UVA

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

3-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Bryan Hansen None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
11%
📊
VIRGINIA
89%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (UVA)
WEST VIRGINIA 24% Book Odds: +320
VIRGINIA 80% Book Odds: -410
Book Implied: 23.80% / 80.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 52%
Under 51.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.6
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 points (Virginia)
West VirginiaWVU (+10.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (-10.5)
Virginia Cavaliers (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

6.1%

Virginia Cover

93.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -21.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

WVU By 1-6 points

3.5%

WVU By 7-13 points

1.6%

UVA By 1-6 points

7.5%

UVA By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
15.2
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 20.50
36.8
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
16
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 20.50
36
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Loss
89% Win Prob
B
Sim Virginia Loss
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.6
B
Sim Virginia (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 WVU @ UVA 38 - 27
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
Virginia: 22.3 vs West Virginia: 18.9
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs West Virginia: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.0% more
West Virginia: 213.1 vs Virginia: 176.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 15.2 38
UVA Score 36.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 18.9 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 176.8 / 213.1 157.0 / 247.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 395.2 / 404.7 354.0 / 437.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +304 / -404 → +320 / -410
2%TICKETS98%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 51.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.0 ATS +/-: +3.7
UVA
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 21.0 ATS +/-: +3.7
UVA
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.7 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +5.5
UVA
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
WVU
UVA
WVU
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 2-0-1
0% 0-3
0% 0-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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