Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado @ Northwestern COLO @ NU

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

2-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
@
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
Player
Damon Greaves None-None
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
25%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
75%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (NU)
COLORADO 41% Book Odds: +145
NORTHWESTERN 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 40.80% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 50%
Under 47.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Northwestern)
ColoradoCOLO (+3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (-3.5)
Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado Cover

19.6%

Northwestern Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

COLO By 1-6 points

9.3%

COLO By 7-13 points

5.9%

NU By 1-6 points

14.2%

NU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18
COLORADO
Book Implied: 22
30
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
20
COLORADO
Book Implied: 22
24
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Northwestern Win
75% Win Prob
C
Sim Northwestern Win
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Northwestern (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Northwestern (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 COLO @ NU 7 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Colorado: 1.3 vs Northwestern: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 18.0 7
NU Score 30.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 19.9 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 152.9 / 154.6 182.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 383.9 / 400.1 423.0 / 348.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -189 → +145 / -175 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3.5 / -3.5
79%TICKETS21%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 47.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -10.2
NU Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +16.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -10.2
NU Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +16.3
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -3.5
NU
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
COLO
NU
COLO
ML
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
ATS
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 1-0
33% 1-2
0% 0-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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