Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / BYU @ Colorado St BYU @ CSU

BYU

BYUBYU

3-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
@
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
Player
Fuller Shurtz None-None
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
92%
📊
COLORADO ST
8%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (BYU)
BYU 91% Book Odds: -1000
COLORADO ST 13% Book Odds: +650
Book Implied: 90.90% / 13.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.5
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.0 (Under)
Over 54.5 31%
Under 54.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.5
BYU
Book Spread
-17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (BYU)
BYUBYU (-17.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+17.5)
BYU Cougars (-17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

96.6%

Colorado St Cover

3.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU -25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

BYU By 1-6 points

5.0%

BYU By 7-13 points

10.8%

CSU By 1-6 points

2.1%

CSU By 7-13 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
34.5
BYU
Book Implied: 36
9
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
Simulated Score
28
BYU
Book Implied: 36
25
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 18.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI BYU Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim BYU Win
62% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI BYU (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.5
C
Sim Colorado St (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.5
B
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 BYU @ CSU 41 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
BYU: 0.6 vs Colorado State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.6% more
BYU: 21.7 vs Colorado State: 19.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
BYU: 170.8 vs Colorado State: 154.7
Turnovers (L5) +36.0% more
Colorado State: 1.2 vs BYU: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 34.5 41
CSU Score 9.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 21.7 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 154.7 / 170.8 82.0 / 332.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 456.7 / 398.3 302.0 / 559.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1123 / +656 → -1000 / +650
99%TICKETS1%
100%MONEY0%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -19 / +19 → -17.5 / +17.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 54.5 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.3 ATS +/-: +3.2
CSU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: +11.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.3 ATS +/-: +3.2
CSU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.7 ATS +/-: +11.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
CSU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +11.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
BYU
CSU
BYU
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Football's Unmatched Grip on Live Television: Why the NFL Still …
yahoo 16 hours, 37 minutes ago
Darrius Clemons: The Cougar with a National Championship Ring an…
si 1 day, 22 hours ago
BYU Enters Bye Week Unbeaten, Sitake Emphasizes Growth
yahoo 3 days, 16 hours ago
Big 12 Surges in AP Top 25 as Three Teams Crack Top 15, Playoff …
ctinsider 4 days, 10 hours ago
BYU's Legend Glasker Shines with One-Handed Grab in Cougars' 41-…
si 5 days, 16 hours ago