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LSU

LSULSU

2-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

3-0  |  Home

32
Key Game
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Grant Chadwick None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
17%
📊
OLE MISS
83%
▲ Edge: +37.90% (MISS)
LSU 60% Book Odds: -148
OLE MISS 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 58.5 41%
Under 58.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.4
OLE MISS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.4 points (Ole Miss)
LSULSU (-3) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3)
Ole Miss Rebels (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

LSU Cover

12.1%

Ole Miss Cover

87.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -16.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

LSU By 1-6 points

6.3%

LSU By 7-13 points

3.5%

MISS By 1-6 points

11.2%

MISS By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
LSU
Book Implied: 30.80
35.2
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
20
LSU
Book Implied: 30.80
39
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Ole Miss Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -16.4
A
Sim Ole Miss (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 LSU @ MISS 24 - 32
Sep 27, 2025 LSU @ MISS 19 - 24
Oct 12, 2024 MISS @ LSU 26 - 29
Sep 30, 2023 LSU @ MISS 49 - 55
Oct 22, 2022 MISS @ LSU 20 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.3% more
LSU: 2.0 vs Ole Miss: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
LSU: 0.5 vs Ole Miss: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LSU Score 18.8 24
MISS Score 35.2 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 24.2 25.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 151.6 / 159.9 63.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 472.6 / 454.7 426.0 / 330.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -148 / +124 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 58.5
48%TICKETS52%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +3.5
MISS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +3.5
MISS Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.0
MISS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
LSU
MISS
LSU
ML
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
83% 5-1
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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