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GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

1-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

2-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
45%
📊
JAX STATE
55%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (GASO)
GA SOUTHERN 41% Book Odds: +145
JAX STATE 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 40.80% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 47%
Under 52.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Georgia Southern)
GA SouthernGASO (+3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (-3.5)
Georgia Southern Eagles (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

55.7%

Jax State Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GASO +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-6 points

15.7%

GASO By 7-13 points

13.8%

JXST By 1-6 points

16.9%

JXST By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24.50
26.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
30
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24.50
31
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jax State Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Jax State Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI GA Southern (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim GA Southern (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 GASO @ JXST 27 - 31
Sep 13, 2025 JXST @ GASO 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +67.3% more
Jacksonville State: 180.2 vs Georgia Southern: 107.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.5 vs Georgia Southern: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Jacksonville State: 428.0 vs Georgia Southern: 380.8
First Downs (L5) +8.3% more
Jacksonville State: 21.6 vs Georgia Southern: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 24.5 27
JXST Score 26.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 20.0 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 180.2 / 107.7 108.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 428.0 / 380.8 302.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -178 → +145 / -175
9%TICKETS91%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3.5 / -3.5
41%TICKETS59%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +2.2
JXST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +2.2
JXST
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -13.2
JXST
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
GASO
JXST
GASO
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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