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DELAWARE STATE

DELAWARE STDSU

2-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

3-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Ghazi Chraibi
KEY GAME

Ghazi Chraibi

#48 | Punter
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Ghazi Chraibi None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE ST
5%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
95%
DELAWARE ST --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 61.5 47%
Under 61.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+32.0
DELAWARE STATE
Book Spread
+36.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Delaware State)
Delaware StDSU (+36.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (-36.5)
Delaware State Hornets (+36.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware St Cover

98.9%

South Florida Cover

1.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DSU +32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DSU)

DSU By 1-6 points

0.7%

DSU By 7-13 points

0.2%

USF By 1-6 points

2.2%

USF By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
14
DELAWARE STATE
Book Implied: 12.50
46
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 49
Simulated Score
13
DELAWARE STATE
Book Implied: 12.50
46
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 49
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware St (+36.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +32.0
B
Sim Delaware St (+36.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 DSU @ USF 17 - 59
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +39.1% more
South Florida: 20.7 vs Delaware State: 14.9
Total Yards (L5) +34.0% more
South Florida: 378.5 vs Delaware State: 282.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
South Florida: 146.1 vs Delaware State: 124.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Delaware State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DSU Score 14.0 17
USF Score 46.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 14.9 33.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 146.1 / 124.1 290.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 378.5 / 282.6 611.0 / 353.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +36.5 / -36.5 → +36.5 / -36.5
38%TICKETS62%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 61.5
50%TICKETS50%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DSU
--
USF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DSU
--
USF Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DSU
--
USF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
DSU
USF
DSU
ML
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
ATS
33% 2-4
50% 1-1
33% 2-4
50% 1-1
TTL
33% 2-4
0% 0-2
33% 2-4
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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