Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ Rice WMU @ RICE

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

2-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

1-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Charlie Durkin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
54%
📊
RICE
46%
▲ Edge: +21.20% (RICE)
W MICHIGAN 79% Book Odds: -377
RICE 25% Book Odds: +307
Book Implied: 79% / 24.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
44.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 (Over)
Over 44.0 63%
Under 44.0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
RICE
Book Spread
+9
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Rice)
W MichiganWMU (-9) 0 RiceRICE (+9)
Rice Owls (+9) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

44.3%

Rice Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RICE +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

WMU By 1-6 points

16.9%

WMU By 7-13 points

16.8%

RICE By 1-6 points

15.7%

RICE By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 26.50
23.8
RICE
Book Implied: 17.50
Simulated Score
23
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 26.50
25
RICE
Book Implied: 17.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI W Michigan Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Rice Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rice (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
C
Sim Rice (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o44.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.6
B
Sim o44.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 WMU @ RICE 28 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Western Michigan: 361.2 vs Rice: 298.6
First Downs (L5) +17.3% more
Western Michigan: 20.0 vs Rice: 16.5
Turnovers (L5) +159.0% more
Rice: 2.0 vs Western Michigan: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Rice: 231.1 vs Western Michigan: 202.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 25.8 28
RICE Score 23.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 20.0 20.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 231.1 / 202.3 209.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 298.6 / 361.2 330.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -518 / +371 → -377 / +307 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -12.5 / +12.5 → -9 / +9 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44 → 44
90%TICKETS10%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +12.5
RICE
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +12.5
RICE Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -3.8
RICE
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
WMU
RICE
WMU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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