Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UT Martin @ Memphis UTM @ MEM

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

1-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

3-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Brandon Sims
KEY GAME

Brandon Sims

#37 | Place kicker
@
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
Player
Brandon Sims None-None
Philippe Laforge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UT MARTIN
5%
📊
MEMPHIS
95%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (UTM)
UT MARTIN 2% Book Odds: +4000
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 57.5 53%
Under 57.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+31.5
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
+33.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UT Martin)
UT MartinUTM (+33.5) 0 MemphisMEM (-33.5)
UT Martin Skyhawks (+33.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UT Martin Cover

98.8%

Memphis Cover

1.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTM +31.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)

UTM By 1-6 points

0.8%

UTM By 7-13 points

0.3%

MEM By 1-6 points

2.4%

MEM By 7-13 points

6.2%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
UT MARTIN
Book Implied: 12
45
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
16
UT MARTIN
Book Implied: 12
35
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Memphis Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UT Martin (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: +31.5
D
Sim UT Martin (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: +19.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.5
D
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UTM @ MEM 21 - 45
Nov 9, 2013 UTM @ MEM 6 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +71.9% more
Memphis: 185.7 vs UT Martin: 108.0
Total Yards (L5) +58.6% more
Memphis: 447.7 vs UT Martin: 282.3
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
Memphis: 19.9 vs UT Martin: 16.1
Turnovers (L5) +30.9% more
UT Martin: 1.8 vs Memphis: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 13.5 21
MEM Score 45.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 16.1 28.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 185.7 / 108.0 299.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.69 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 447.7 / 282.3 572.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +4000 / -20000 → +4000 / --
3%TICKETS97%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +34.5 / -34.5 → +33.5 / -33.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 57.5
50%TICKETS50%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
--
MEM Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
--
MEM Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
--
MEM
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTM
MEM
UTM
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's QB Dilemma: Vizzina Probable, but Reynolds Ready to Le…
si 1 day, 4 hours ago
Paul Finebaum Blames Auburn AD John Cohen for Florida Loss, Call…
si 2 days, 4 hours ago
White Sox Use Final Off Day to Reflect on Remarkable Turnaround
headtopics 3 days, 22 hours ago
Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Homecoming Turns Sour as Rebels Stun LSU …
theathleticuk 4 days, 16 hours ago
Ole Miss Poised to Leapfrog LSU in AP Top 25 After 32-24 Victory
mysa 4 days, 16 hours ago