Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Southern Miss CONN @ USM

UCONN

UCONNCONN

2-1  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Tommy Warner

#49 | Punter
@
Darrell Gross
KEY GAME

Darrell Gross

#88 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tommy Warner None-None
Darrell Gross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
41%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
59%
▲ Edge: +17.10% (USM)
UCONN 62% Book Odds: -162
SOUTHERN MISS 42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 61.80% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 42%
Under 54.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Southern Miss)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

38.8%

Southern Miss Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

CONN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CONN By 7-13 points

12.1%

USM By 1-6 points

17.0%

USM By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
UCONN
Book Implied: 29
27.5
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
30
UCONN
Book Implied: 29
32
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Southern Miss Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Southern Miss (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 CONN @ USM 48 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.0% more
Southern Miss: 1.4 vs UConn: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.3% more
UConn: 162.0 vs Southern Miss: 137.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
UConn: 403.1 vs Southern Miss: 365.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 23.5 48
USM Score 27.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 19.6 21.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 137.1 / 162.0 102.0 / 213.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 365.8 / 403.1 401.0 / 436.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -162 / +136
89%TICKETS11%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +13.2
USM
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +13.2
USM
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.8
USM
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
CONN
USM
CONN
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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