Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Murray St @ Oklahoma St MUR @ OKST

MURRAY STATE

MURRAY STMUR

1-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

2-1  |  Home

59
Key Game
Victor Kyatt
KEY GAME

Victor Kyatt

#31 | Place kicker
@
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
Player
Victor Kyatt None-None
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MURRAY ST
5%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
95%
MURRAY ST --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
70.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +12.1 (Under)
Over 70.5 25%
Under 70.5 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
+56
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Murray State)
Murray StMUR (+56) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (-56)
Murray State Racers (+56) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Murray St Cover

98.4%

Oklahoma St Cover

1.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MUR +30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-6 points

1.0%

MUR By 7-13 points

0.4%

OKST By 1-6 points

2.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
MURRAY STATE
Book Implied: 7.20
44.2
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 63.20
Simulated Score
16
MURRAY STATE
Book Implied: 7.20
28
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 63.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oklahoma St Win
95% Win Prob
B
Sim Oklahoma St Win
88% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Murray St (+56) Loss
Proj Spread: +30.0
A
Sim Murray St (+56) Loss
Proj Spread: +12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u70.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
A
Sim u70.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MUR @ OKST 0 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +49.9% more
Oklahoma State: 384.7 vs Murray State: 256.6
Turnovers (L5) +42.4% more
Oklahoma State: 2.4 vs Murray State: 1.7
First Downs (L5) +34.1% more
Oklahoma State: 20.7 vs Murray State: 15.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Oklahoma State: 145.5 vs Murray State: 116.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 14.2 0
OKST Score 44.2 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 15.4 33.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 145.5 / 116.0 301.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 384.7 / 256.6 662.0 / 160.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +56.5 / -56.5 → +56 / -56 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 70.5 → 70.5
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
--
OKST Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
--
OKST Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
--
OKST
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
MUR
OKST
MUR
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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