Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Auburn FLA @ AUB

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

3-0  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

2-1  |  Home

39
Key Game
Alec Clark
KEY GAME

Alec Clark

#38 | Punter
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Alec Clark None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
27%
📊
AUBURN
73%
▲ Edge: +26.80% (AUB)
FLORIDA 57% Book Odds: -135
AUBURN 47% Book Odds: +114
Book Implied: 57.40% / 46.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
Over 52.5 49%
Under 52.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
AUBURN
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Auburn)
FloridaFLA (-2.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+2.5)
Auburn Tigers (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

22.7%

Auburn Cover

77.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

FLA By 1-6 points

10.4%

FLA By 7-13 points

6.9%

AUB By 1-6 points

15.0%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 27.50
31.5
AUBURN
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
19
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 27.50
30
AUBURN
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Loss
73% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Loss
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
B
Sim Auburn (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
D
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FLA @ AUB 44 - 39
Oct 5, 2019 AUB @ FLA 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +9.0% more
Auburn: 25.4 vs Florida: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 21.0 44
AUB Score 31.5 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.4 / 23.3 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 226.8 / 211.3 102.0 / 243.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 482.0 / 463.7 373.0 / 495.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +112 → -135 / +114
72%TICKETS28%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -2.5 / +2.5
61%TICKETS39%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +6.5
AUB
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +6.5
AUB
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +15.2
AUB
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
FLA
AUB
FLA
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Liberty's Second-Half Surge Overwhelms Coastal Carolina in 34-17…
ctinsider 16 hours, 28 minutes ago
Liberty Dominates Second Half to Spoil Chadwell's Return, Beat C…
yahoo 16 hours, 49 minutes ago
Florida and Ole Miss Fans Engage in Unprecedented 'Respect Off' …
foxnews 22 hours, 37 minutes ago
Sumrall's No-Nonsense Approach Has Florida Locked In for Showdow…
miamiherald 1 day, 4 hours ago
Baylor QB DJ Lagway Probable for Colorado Showdown, per Big 12 R…
yahoo 1 day, 16 hours ago