Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Missouri TROY @ MIZ

TROY

TROYTROY

2-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

3-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Brunno Reus None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
6%
📊
MISSOURI
94%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (TROY)
TROY 6% Book Odds: +1700
MISSOURI 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.4
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 (Over)
Over 50.5 76%
Under 50.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
-27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Missouri)
TroyTROY (+27.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (-27.5)
Missouri Tigers (-27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

1.9%

Missouri Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

TROY By 1-6 points

1.2%

TROY By 7-13 points

0.4%

MIZ By 1-6 points

3.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
TROY
Book Implied: 11.50
45.2
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 39
Simulated Score
13
TROY
Book Implied: 11.50
42
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 39
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Missouri Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Missouri (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.4
A
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 TROY @ MIZ 17 - 27
Oct 5, 2019 TROY @ MIZ 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
Missouri: 1.2 vs Troy: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Missouri: 195.6 vs Troy: 142.8
First Downs (L5) +31.5% more
Missouri: 22.7 vs Troy: 17.3
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Missouri: 424.8 vs Troy: 336.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 16.2 17
MIZ Score 45.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 17.3 13.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 195.6 / 142.8 139.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 424.8 / 336.3 230.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -7692 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +27.5 / -27.5
75%TICKETS25%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 50.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIZ Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIZ
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 22.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -4.8
MIZ
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
TROY
MIZ
TROY
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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