Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ Missouri St MRSH @ MOST

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

2-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:30 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Cooper Heimbach None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
34%
📊
MISSOURI ST
66%
▲ Edge: +27.90% (MOST)
MARSHALL 65% Book Odds: -185
MISSOURI ST 38% Book Odds: +162
Book Implied: 64.90% / 38.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 52.5 48%
Under 52.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 points (Missouri State)
MarshallMRSH (-4.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+4.5)
Missouri State Bears (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

30.9%

Missouri St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MRSH By 1-6 points

12.9%

MRSH By 7-13 points

9.6%

MOST By 1-6 points

16.5%

MOST By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 28.50
29.2
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
30
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 28.50
29
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri St Loss
66% Win Prob
D
Sim Marshall Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Missouri St (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.4
D
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MRSH @ MOST 30 - 24
Sep 6, 2025 MOST @ MRSH 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Missouri State: 395.5 vs Marshall: 323.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.3% more
Missouri State: 142.3 vs Marshall: 127.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Missouri State: 0.4 vs Marshall: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.0% more
Missouri State: 19.9 vs Marshall: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 22.2 30
MOST Score 29.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 18.4 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 142.3 / 127.9 186.0 / 267.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 395.5 / 323.0 506.0 / 464.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -180 / +150 → -185 / +162 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -4.5 / +4.5
43%TICKETS57%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.5
MOST
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.5
MOST
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.8
MOST
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
MRSH
MOST
MRSH
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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