Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ Old Dominion ECU @ ODU

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

1-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
29%
📊
OLD DOMINION
71%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (ODU)
EAST CAROLINA 45% Book Odds: +124
OLD DOMINION 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 48.5 59%
Under 48.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Old Dominion)
East CarolinaECU (+2.5) 0 Old DominionODU (-2.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

24.9%

Old Dominion Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

ECU By 1-6 points

11.1%

ECU By 7-13 points

7.6%

ODU By 1-6 points

15.5%

ODU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23
31
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
24
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 23
34
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion Loss
71% Win Prob
C
Sim Old Dominion Loss
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
C
Sim Old Dominion (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 ECU @ ODU 20 - 17
Sep 7, 2024 ECU @ ODU 20 - 14
Sep 10, 2022 ODU @ ECU 21 - 39
Sep 28, 2019 ECU @ ODU 24 - 21
Sep 29, 2018 ODU @ ECU 35 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.8% more
Old Dominion: 204.0 vs East Carolina: 134.4
Turnovers (L5) +37.4% more
Old Dominion: 2.0 vs East Carolina: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Old Dominion: 0.4 vs East Carolina: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 21.5 20
ODU Score 31.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 17.2 14.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 204.0 / 134.4 180.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.33 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 366.7 / 350.8 274.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +122 / -143 → +124 / -148 ↑
19%TICKETS81%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.7 ATS +/-: -4.8
ODU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.7 ATS +/-: -4.8
ODU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.5
ODU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
ECU
ODU
ECU
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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