Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe SELA @ ULM

SE LOUISIANA

SE LOUISIANASELA

2-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:30 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jack Hunter
KEY GAME

Jack Hunter

#46 | Punter
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Jack Hunter None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SE LOUISIANA
9%
📊
UL MONROE
91%
▲ Edge: +9.50% (ULM)
SE LOUISIANA 24% Book Odds: +313
UL MONROE 81% Book Odds: -436
Book Implied: 24.20% / 81.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 68%
Under 48.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 points (UL Monroe)
SE LouisianaSELA (+9.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (-9.5)
UL Monroe Warhawks (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SE Louisiana Cover

4.3%

UL Monroe Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

SELA By 1-6 points

2.5%

SELA By 7-13 points

1.1%

ULM By 1-6 points

5.9%

ULM By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
SE LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 19.50
40.2
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
15
SE LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 19.50
30
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UL Monroe Loss
91% Win Prob
B
Sim UL Monroe Loss
93% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UL Monroe (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
B
Sim UL Monroe (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
B
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 SELA @ ULM 38 - 35
Aug 30, 2018 SELA @ ULM 31 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +106.8% more
UL Monroe: 165.9 vs SE Louisiana: 80.2
First Downs (L5) +35.9% more
UL Monroe: 18.4 vs SE Louisiana: 13.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
UL Monroe: 304.5 vs SE Louisiana: 246.4
Turnovers (L5) +40.5% more
SE Louisiana: 1.7 vs UL Monroe: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 16.2 38
ULM Score 40.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 13.5 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 165.9 / 80.2 180.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.56 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 304.5 / 246.4 511.0 / 279.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +316 / -460 → +313 / -436 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
74%TICKETS26%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
--
ULM Advantage
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
--
ULM Advantage
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
--
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
SELA
ULM
SELA
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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