Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ South Carolina MSST @ SC

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

3-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 5:35 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Malik Orsan
KEY GAME

Malik Orsan

#32 | Place kicker
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Malik Orsan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
38%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
62%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (SC)
MISSISSIPPI ST 42% Book Odds: +136
SOUTH CAROLINA 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 42.40% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.1 (Under)
Over 59.5 33%
Under 59.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Carolina)
Mississippi StMSST (+3) 0 South CarolinaSC (-3)
South Carolina Gamecocks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

36.0%

South Carolina Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

MSST By 1-6 points

14.2%

MSST By 7-13 points

11.3%

SC By 1-6 points

16.9%

SC By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.2
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
28.2
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
30
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
29
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Carolina Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Carolina (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.4
A
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MSST @ SC 41 - 34
Sep 23, 2023 MSST @ SC 30 - 37
Sep 10, 2016 SC @ MSST 14 - 27
Nov 2, 2013 MSST @ SC 16 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +81.0% more
South Carolina: 1.6 vs Mississippi State: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
Mississippi State: 28.0 vs South Carolina: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 23.2 41
SC Score 28.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 28.0 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 248.9 / 247.1 149.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 492.9 / 525.9 431.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -167 → +136 / -162 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59 → 59.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
SC
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
SC
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
SC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
MSST
SC
MSST
ML
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
TTL
17% 1-5
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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