Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana Tech @ Baylor LT @ BAY

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

1-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

2-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
@
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Lexington Matthews None-None
Rhett Armstrong None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
15%
📊
BAYLOR
85%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (LT)
LOUISIANA TECH 11% Book Odds: +800
BAYLOR 93% Book Odds: -1350
Book Implied: 11.10% / 93.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 59%
Under 50.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.5
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
+19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
Louisiana TechLT (+19.5) 0 BaylorBAY (-19.5)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

90.7%

Baylor Cover

9.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT +18.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

LT By 1-6 points

5.0%

LT By 7-13 points

2.6%

BAY By 1-6 points

9.6%

BAY By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 15.50
36.5
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
29
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 15.50
33
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Baylor Win
85% Win Prob
B
Sim Baylor Win
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Tech (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.5
D
Sim Louisiana Tech (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 LT @ BAY 19 - 36
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +58.9% more
Baylor: 27.3 vs Louisiana Tech: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +33.4% more
Baylor: 467.9 vs Louisiana Tech: 350.8
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
Baylor: 2.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 18.0 19
BAY Score 36.5 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.3 / 17.2 22.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 161.9 / 169.6 165.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 467.9 / 350.8 418.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +750 / -1205 → +800 / -1350 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 50.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +12.0
BAY Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +12.0
BAY
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.8
BAY
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
LT
BAY
LT
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brownsburg vs. Westfield: Indiana's Top Two Teams Clash in Rival…
si 0 minutes ago
Tom Moore, 87, Returns to Iowa Football with Four Super Bowl Rin…
hoodline 0 minutes ago
Liberty Dominates Second Half to Spoil Chadwell's Return, Beat C…
yahoo 17 hours, 30 minutes ago
ESPN's Win Probability for Georgia vs Oklahoma: Bulldogs Heavy F…
yahoo 1 day, 11 hours ago
Baylor QB DJ Lagway Probable for Colorado Showdown, per Big 12 R…
yahoo 1 day, 17 hours ago