Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Liberty BALL @ LIB

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-2  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

2-1  |  Home

51
Key Game
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
@
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
Player
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
Sam Crossan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
31%
📊
LIBERTY
69%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (BALL)
BALL STATE 18% Book Odds: +470
LIBERTY 87% Book Odds: -649
Book Implied: 17.50% / 86.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 58%
Under 49.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Ball State)
Ball StateBALL (+14.5) 0 LibertyLIB (-14.5)
Ball State Cardinals (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

71.6%

Liberty Cover

28.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-6 points

12.2%

BALL By 7-13 points

8.8%

LIB By 1-6 points

16.1%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
30
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
18
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
32
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Liberty Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Win
92% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ball State (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
C
Sim Ball State (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 BALL @ LIB 15 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Liberty: 191.9 vs Ball State: 137.4
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
Liberty: 1.5 vs Ball State: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +21.4% more
Liberty: 391.5 vs Ball State: 322.4
First Downs (L5) +17.8% more
Liberty: 20.4 vs Ball State: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 22.0 15
LIB Score 30.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 17.3 23.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 191.9 / 137.4 212.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.77 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 391.5 / 322.4 460.0 / 261.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +459 / -684 → +470 / -649 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +14.5 / -14.5
6%TICKETS94%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 49.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -21.7 ATS +/-: -4.5
LIB Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -21.7 ATS +/-: -4.5
LIB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.5
LIB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
BALL
LIB
BALL
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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