Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northern Iowa @ Iowa UNI @ IOWA

NORTHERN IOWA

NORTHERN IOWAUNI

1-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:00 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

3-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Logan Gregory

#2 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
Player
Logan Gregory None-None
Boston Everitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHERN IOWA
3%
📊
IOWA
97%
NORTHERN IOWA --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +16.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 83%
Under 48.5 17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+37.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
+38
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Northern IowaUNI (+38) 0 IowaIOWA (-38)
Northern Iowa Panthers (+38) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northern Iowa Cover

99.6%

Iowa Cover

0.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNI +37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

UNI By 1-6 points

0.3%

UNI By 7-13 points

0.1%

IOWA By 1-6 points

1.0%

IOWA By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Implied: 5.20
50.8
IOWA
Book Implied: 43.20
Simulated Score
16
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Implied: 5.20
32
IOWA
Book Implied: 43.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Iowa Win
94% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Northern Iowa (+38) Loss
Proj Spread: +37.0
D
Sim Northern Iowa (+38) Loss
Proj Spread: +16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.6
A
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UNI @ IOWA 0 - 55
Sep 15, 2018 UNI @ IOWA 14 - 38
Aug 30, 2014 UNI @ IOWA 23 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +116.9% more
Iowa: 180.9 vs Northern Iowa: 83.4
Total Yards (L5) +52.3% more
Iowa: 362.9 vs Northern Iowa: 238.4
First Downs (L5) +19.0% more
Iowa: 18.2 vs Northern Iowa: 15.3
Turnovers (L5) +58.9% more
Northern Iowa: 1.8 vs Iowa: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNI Score 13.8 0
IOWA Score 50.8 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 15.3 32.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 180.9 / 83.4 422.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 362.9 / 238.4 640.0 / 155.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +38 / -38 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
--
IOWA Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.7 ATS +/-: +5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
--
IOWA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 32.7 ATS +/-: +5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
--
IOWA
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
UNI
IOWA
UNI
ML
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 1-0
0% 0-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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